Félix Tshisekedi’s brief trip to South Africa on September 18, 2025, intended as a working visit and a chance to shore up regional ties, has taken on new significance amid the unfolding trial of former president Joseph Kabila and rising tensions inside the Democratic Republic of Congo’s political elite.
The developments have exposed a widening rift between Tshisekedi and his longtime rival Kabila, and have pulled South Africa and Zimbabwe into an increasingly fraught mediation role.
Kabila, who is being tried in absentia on charges that include treason over alleged collusion with the M23 rebel movement, has publicly denounced Tshisekedi’s government, accusing it of undermining democratic norms.
The trial — and the prospect that prosecutors may seek the harshest penalties — has heightened political temperature in Kinshasa and across the region. Observers warn the case risks deepening polarization in Congolese politics and provoking destabilizing responses from outside actors.
According to reporting by Africa Intelligence, the immediate cause for Tshisekedi’s short trip to South Africa was a diplomatic effort prompted in part by discussions in Harare at the end of August, where Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa raised the matter with Kabila and with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa.
That outreach, Africa Intelligence says, led Ramaphosa to propose a meeting in Pretoria to defuse tensions — and culminated in a phone call between Ramaphosa and Mnangagwa during Tshisekedi’s visit on September 18.
The move underscores how Kabila’s trial is no longer a purely domestic affair but a regional flashpoint.
South Africa publicly framed Tshisekedi’s visit as part of ongoing peace and diplomatic engagement in the Great Lakes region.
Ramaphosa met Tshisekedi for closed-door talks at Mahlamba Ndlopfu, and South African officials said the meeting aimed to strengthen ties and support regional stability.
Pretoria’s role is delicate: it must balance its own diplomatic relationships with Kinshasa and with other regional capitals that have differing views on how to handle the DRC’s internal political crisis.
The fallout between Tshisekedi and Kabila runs deeper than courtroom theatre.
Analysts note that Kabila’s political network — including allies within provincial administrations and elements of the security apparatus — could react unpredictably to legal pressure on the former president.
Kabila has already issued sharp criticisms of Tshisekedi’s government, warning that public perceptions of the trial and its handling could undermine the administration’s legitimacy.
That dynamic partly explains why neighboring leaders and regional blocs are scrambling to manage the situation before it spills over.
For Tshisekedi, the diplomatic juggling act presents immediate and long-term challenges. In the short term, his meetings with Ramaphosa and subsequent calls with regional leaders represent damage control: reducing the risk that the Kabila case will trigger violent reprisals or wider destabilization.
In the longer term, the episode highlights the fragility of political reconciliation in the DRC and the limits of domestic institutions to adjudicate high-stakes, politically charged cases without regional implications.
Regional actors are likely to remain engaged. Zimbabwe’s Mnangagwa and South Africa’s Ramaphosa appear motivated to prevent further escalation that could spill into cross-border instability or force larger SADC involvement.
But their involvement also complicates perceptions: for critics of Tshisekedi, external diplomacy can look like selective interference; for supporters, it is a necessary stabilizing force. Either way, the Kabila trial has internationalised a dispute that began within Kinshasa’s political corridors.
Kinshasa has not publicly signalled a change in its legal course, and Tshisekedi’s government insists that the justice process should run its course.
Yet the combination of an in-absentia trial, public denunciations from Kabila, and active regional mediation means the courtroom fight is now inseparable from diplomatic maneuvering.
How the presidents of the DRC and the region manage the fallout in the coming weeks will determine whether the crisis cools diplomatically or intensifies politically — with consequences for stability in eastern Congo and for the broader Great Lakes region.